000 AGXX40 KNHC 161754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1254 PM EST WED NOV 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE SE UNITED STATES TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A TRANSITION OF WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING THE FRONT SE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITING THE BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGING NOSING SOUTHWARD ALONG INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST S OF 25N AND W OF 95W BEGINNING SATURDAY NEAR 25N...THEN SPREADING S TO THE REMAINDER OF THIS AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THE GALE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY LAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE BEFORE STALLING OUT FROM AROUND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COASTLINE OF THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT FRESH NE WINDS. BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TO FRESH TO STRONG THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MEANDER OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NE AND OUT OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE LOW AND THE COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW TO ABOUT 24N WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. AFTER THE LOW MOVES N OF THE AREA...STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS W OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 29N OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS TO 9 FT POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES AND SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NW ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N68W TO 25N75W BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT N OF 25N N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.