000 AGXX40 KNHC 151807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 107 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SW AND EXIT THE GULF BASIN TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF TODAY WILL STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE SE UNITED STATES TO MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A TRANSITION OF WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING THE FRONT SE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITING THE BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGING NOSING SOUTHWARD ALONG INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST S OF 25N AND W OF 95W BEGINNING SATURDAY NEAR 25N...THEN SPREADING S TO THE REMAINDER OF THIS AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THE GALE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY LAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE BEFORE STALLING OUT FROM AROUND THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE COASTLINE OF THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT FRESH NE WINDS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TO FRESH TO STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MEANDER OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE OVER THE NW WATERS WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THEN FROM E OF BERMUDA TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 28N71W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN FROM 31N60W TO 22N65W TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER AS IT DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.