000
AGXX40 KNHC 140810
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS IN THE SW GULF REACHING FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO 1013 MB LOW
PRES IN THE SW GULF NEAR 20N93.5W. 30 KT NW-N FLOW OFFSHORE OF
VERACRUZ IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG BY MON
EVENING THEN DIMINISH FURTHER TUE EVENING. THE SW GULF STATIONARY
FRONT AND LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE. MEANWHILE THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE S AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE THEN PUSH E TO THE
ATLANTIC BY WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NW GULF WED THEN
MOVE E TO THE NE GULF THU. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS BY FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO APPROACH THE FAR NW GULF SAT.
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 

A NEAR STATIONARY TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W WITH
ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTING S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. FRESH
TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL PULSE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY
THROUGH TUE EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF
2-4 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WED... STALLING FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THU THROUGH FRI. BROAD LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN BY MID-WEEK WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 27N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
A STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N72W TO 30N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED TO THE SE...REACHING FROM 31N48W TO 26N52W TO 22N65W TO
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. BOTH FRONT AND TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO NE FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE...EXTEND FROM
31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W WED...AND EXTEND FROM
31N63W TO 25N67W THU. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL W OF THE
COLD FRONT FRI AND SAT. EXPECT NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TO
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W
AND 70W FRI AND SAT. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.