000 AGXX40 KNHC 121852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 152 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS IN THE SW GULF REACHING FROM 25N87W TO 24N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N94W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. SEAS ARE UP TO 12 FT IN THIS AREA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT. GENTLE EASTERLY WINDS ARE E OF 90W...WITH MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF 90W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE NE GULF WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SW GULF BY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON...STALLING AND DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW W OF 90W AND EASTERLY FLOW E OF 90W. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT...THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON...MAY MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG BRIEFLY ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO STRONG ON SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING YET AGAIN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRES PATTERN WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED...STALLING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER BY THU MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL ARRIVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...BROAD LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE SE WATERS FROM NEAR 22N59W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS FROM E TO W ALONG 25N. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION AND WILL DROP S REACHING 29N THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG 27N BY SUN AFTERNOON AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION AT THE SAME TIME. THAT NEXT FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA TUE MORNING...FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 31N68W TO POSSIBLE LOW PRES NEAR 28N71W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. NEEDLESS TO SAY A VERY PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NUMEROUS COLD FRONTS... OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT WITH EACH PASSAGE...STRONG WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF LOW PRES MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.