000 AGXX40 KNHC 120825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W TO THE SW GULF ALONG 24.5N88W TO 24N94W TO 18N94W. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A REINFORCING COLD FRONT QUICKLY ENTERING THE GULF WATERS ON SATURDAY...THEN LOSING IDENTITY BY SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL RANGE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. AN 12/0318 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRROM 18N TO 21N W OF 94.5W. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PRESIST THROUGH 14/0600 UTC. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE SETUP FOR MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF W OF 90W ON THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SE FROM THE UNITED STATES MAINLAND COULD USHER IN FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 89W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS E FROM THE UNITED STATES MAINLAND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH S OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE W AND DISSIPATE BY SUN. MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES WOULD COMBINE WITH AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INVOLVING REPEATED FRONTAL PASSAGES APPEARS TO BE LINED UP FOR NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT CURVES FROM 31N58W TO 26N63W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E AWAY FROM THE FORECAST WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL GENERALLY BE IN STORE WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NW WATERS LATE SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND IS ONLY EXPECTED TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 28N AND E OF 66W. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MERGES WITH AN OLDER BOUNDARY E OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF 55W ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER AND PERHAPS STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS EXCEEDING 8 FT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 26 N WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.