000 AGXX40 KNHC 110712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF THEN STATIONARY TO THE SW GULF. THE COLD FRONT PART OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SE IN THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND W CUBA TO THE SW GULF FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE- ENFORCING COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING THE GULF WATERS ON SATURDAY...REACHING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. 25 KT N WINDS ARE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. THE SPEED OF 25 KT TO 30 KT OR SO WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD OVER INTERIOR MEXICO. SEAS TO 9 FT CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN 60 NM OF VERA CRUZ AS THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE BASIN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF. THE LATEST GFS RE- ENFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE SW GULF AND INITIATES A GALE LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS POSSIBLE GALE IS REFLECTED IN THE MOST RECENT ISSUANCE OF THE SURFACE PROGS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W WILL PULSE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A DEEP- LAYER TROUGH TO THE N WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY WHILE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LINGERING LARGE SWELL ARE PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL MERGE WITH A SHEAR LINE AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 24N58W TO HISPANIOLA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PART WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO 30N50W TO 24N58W BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 15 FT WILL OCCUR N OF 27N WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NW WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT BUILDING N OF THIS FRONT EAST OF JACKSONVILLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN EAST OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.