000 AGXX40 KNHC 100710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST THU NOV 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF THEN STATIONARY TO THE SW GULF. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND ABSORB A TROUGH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...WITH THIS REMAINDER PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER OR JUST S OF CUBA FRI NIGHT. THE ENTIRE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN...MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE- ENFORCING COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY..REACHING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR GALE WINDS CURRENTLY W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICO COAST S OF 25N WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 25 KT THROUGH TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD OVER INTERIOR MEXICO. SEAS TO 9 FT CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN 60 NM OF VERA CRUZ AS THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 26N W OF ABOUT 89W WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER TO 20 KT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE BASIN SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF. THE LATEST GFS RE- ENFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE SW GULF AND INITIATES A GALE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS POSSIBLE GALE IS REFLECTED IN THE MOST RECENT ISSUANCE OF THE SURFACE PROGS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W WILL PULSE DURING THE DAY TODAY THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. GUIDANCE INDICATES DEEP- LAYER TROUGHING TO THE N WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY WHILE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING LARGE SWELL PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THIS MORNING. A NEW COLD FRONT EMERGING OVER THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL MERGE WITH A SHEAR LINE AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 24N58W TO HISPANIOLA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO 30N50W TO 24N58W BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 14 FT WILL OCCUR N OF 27N WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NW WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT BUILDING N OF THIS FRONT EAST OF JACKSONVILLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN EAST OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.