000 AGXX40 KNHC 091852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 152 PM EST WED NOV 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT REACHES FROM 30N86W TO LOW PRES 1014 MB NEAR 28N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW TO 24N91W TO 18N94W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA COAST AT 26N82W TO 24N94W TO 18N94W THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N88W...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 24N88W TO 23N94W TO 18N94W THU NIGHT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF W OF 86W THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. N WINDS FUNNELING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT TODAY THROUGH THU. THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS RUNS INDICATES GALE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OFFSHORE NEAR VERACRUZ TONIGHT. GFS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...BUT NEAR GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. SEAS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED TO BELOW 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING TO THE N WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE SWELL PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF 8 FT SEAS WILL DECREASE TO AN AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W BY MID MORNING THU. WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR 30N75W WILL SHIFT E AND LOSE IDENTITY THU. A COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM 27N52W TO 20N70W BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT AND RACE SE...EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR 30N60W TO HISPANIOLA TO CUBA WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE COMBINED SEAS TO REBUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 14 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 27N AND E OF 77W THROUGH SAT MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 25-30 KT N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT E OF JACKSONVILLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N65W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR MIAMI BY LATE SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.