000 AGXX40 KNHC 090728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 AM EST WED NOV 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NW GULF. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N95W TO 18N94W TONIGHT...CROSSING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N91W WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY TO 18N94W THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF W OF 86W. N WINDS FUNNELING SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES 30-33 KT NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE VERACRUZ LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...STATISTICAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE CHANCES OF GALE WARNING OCCURRING REMAIN LOW...POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND MEXICO. GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER FOR THE NEXT FRONT HOWEVER...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO INDUCE GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PRIMARILY N OF 18N IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN S OF CUBA...AND TO 8 FT OVER THE DOWNWIND WATERS OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN...AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE SWELL EVENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM 27N52W TO 20N70W BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT AND RACE SE...EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING FROM NEAR 30N60W TO HISPANIOLA TO CUBA FRI NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 25-30 KT N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT E OF JACKSONVILLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N65W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR MIAMI BY LATE SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.