000 AGXX40 KNHC 081838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 PM EST TUE NOV 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WED WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N94W TO 18N95W THU...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N95W TO 18N94W FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF W OF 86W. N WINDS FUNNELING SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT WED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES 30-33 KT NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE VERACRUZ LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STATISTICAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE CHANCES OF GALE WARNING OCCURRING REMAIN LOW...POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND MEXICO. GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER FOR THE NEXT FRONT HOWEVER. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO SAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INDUCE GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PRIMARILY N OF 18N IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN...AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING MARINE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION QUITE VARIABLE PRIMARILY IN ZONES NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FURTHER EAST THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE ROUGHLY ALONG 20N THROUGH THU. THEN...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT RACING SOUTHWARD E OF FLORIDA THU WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE TROPICS BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FRI...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 25-30 KT N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT E OF JACKSONVILLE EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N65W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR MIAMI SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.