000 AGXX40 KNHC 080731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 231 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WEAKENS TODAY AND MOVES SE OVER THE ATLC WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX TO MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER TEXAS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF WEDNESDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH BRIEFLY CLOSES OFF INTO LOW PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE S OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...HOWEVER WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO AROUND 26N93W BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE COLD FRONT PORTION REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR 25N95W. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF W OF 86W. WINDS FUNNELING ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE VERA CRUZ LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STATISTICAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE CHANCES OF A GALE OCCURRING REMAIN LOW...POSSIBLY DUE THE FACT THAT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RE-ENFORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL EFFECT THE ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 26N67W WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL N OF 28N E OF 70W OVER THE FORECAST ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NE ZONES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STORM SUPPORTING THESE FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEND A LARGE SWELL EVENT WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS ACROSS FORECAST ZONES NE OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 17 FT TODAY NEAR 31N65W. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE THIRD COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT N OF 28N E OF 77W THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.