000 AGXX40 KNHC 071830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST MON NOV 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE E GULF TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IN THE NW GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD SOUTH OF LOUISIANA THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WED IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THIS TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF...AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 25N95W TO 18N94W THU...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N96W FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS AN E-W FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...WITH THE FRONT ORIENTED N-S W OF 95W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE FRONT IMPLIES STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WED THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION A FEW MORE DAYS WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLC WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 35N55W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO CUBA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE. THEN...A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH SAT. MODELS HAVE FALLEN INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST HAS INCREASED. FORECAST WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL EXPERIENCE EPISODES OF LARGE N TO NW SWELL SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR FRONTS MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONTINUES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.