000 AGXX40 KNHC 070622 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 122 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA MID WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAINLY EAST OF 87W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF EARLY THIS WEEK AND DRIFTING IT EASTWARD. MODELS ARE THEN IN LESS AGREEMENT ON WHAT EVOLVES OUT OF THIS TROUGH BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MODELS DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THIS TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTION DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THIS TROUGH AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF WEDNESDAY AND ACCELERATES THE LOW TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SOLUTION BUILDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRAPS THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE GULF BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT IS MEDIUM. REGARDLESS OF WHAT OCCURS BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...AN ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE IN ONE SCENARIO INDICATES THE FRONT MAY DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY INDUCE STRONG NW WINDS TO 30 KT W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THU INTO EARLY FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 70W WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N63W TO 24N74W THEN STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL HAVE ITS STATIONARY PORTION DISSIPATE WHILE THE REMAINING PORTION CONTINUES EAST TO EXTEND FROM 25N59W TO N OF HISPANIOLA MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT TO 27N W OF 70W THROUGH TODAY...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS SHIFTING OVER THE WATERS SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NE ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A SWELL EVENT THAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO A PEAK OF 17 FT ON TUESDAY OVER THE NE ZONES. LARGE SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER THE WATERS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS N OF 24N BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER N OF 27N AND E OF 73W OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. THE LARGE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT WHERE FRESH WINDS BEHIND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT HELP TO INCREASE SEAS BACK ABOVE 8 FT N OF 29N E OF 75W WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.