000 AGXX40 KNHC 061800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIAS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH WED. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW IN THE NE GULF WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WED WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF THU... WITH THE BECOMING ENTANGLED IN THE FRONT AND TRACKING E-NE INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO INDUCE STRONG NW WINDS TO 30 KT W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THU INTO EARLY FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 70W WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N65W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG 22N MON. A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL DRAG A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF THE AREA TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE NE WINDS SW OF THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO 25 KT LATE MON AND TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKING E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY THU AND FRI BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS REPRESENTS A LARGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR SUBSEQUENT GFS MODEL RUNS AND OTHER GUIDANCE TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...BUT FOR NOW...NOT INCLUDING THE GFS MODEL AFTER THU IN BLENDED FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.