000
AGXX40 KNHC 051700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN E GULF WILL MOVE S AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS MAINLY E OF 87W SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
COASTS OF NE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT E-SE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE NW OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC
WILL ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
N OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY N OF 18N...STARTING TUESDAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N69W TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH MON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ROUGHLY ALONG 22N
N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED. STRONG NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL N OF THE
FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT LATER TODAY N
AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 8-9 FT IN THIS AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION E OF 70W MON...WITH FRESH N TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS
FRONT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12 FT OVER NE ZONES MON THROUGH WED.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS SW OF
THE BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...MON AND TUE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.