000 AGXX40 KNHC 040614 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE NE GULF COAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND MERGE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THESE ISLANDS. FRESH NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WEAKENS. THE WINDS OVER THESE SAME LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES AND ENTER OUR NW WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT MORNING AND THEN FROM NEAR 30N61W TO HISPANIOLA BY SUN MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY S OF 24N WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUES EAST OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES. STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP N OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS E OF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND 8 TO 9 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING SE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE BAHAMAS...OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.