000 AGXX40 KNHC 031851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. EAST COAST RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW BECOMING MORE W TO E ORIENTED ALONG ABOUT 33W. THIS ACTING TO RELAX THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WHERE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED MODESTLY IN PAST 24 HOURS. OBS AND RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOW FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL GULF WITH MAX SEAS TO 8 FT THIS MORNING AND LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW ATTM. ELONGATED SWATH OF 6 FT SEAS THEN EXTENDS NW TO SE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SW GULF COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG VERACRUZ REGION. WHERE VERY ACTIVE CNVTN CONTINUES ALONG COASTAL TROUGH AND JUST TO E OF TUTT ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ESE THROUGH FRI AND ALLOW PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX FURTHER ACROSS THE BASIN...WHILE SW GULF TROUGH BECOME BROADER AND MORE PRONOUNCED. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK S ACROSS NE PORTIONS AND FLORIDA FRI EVENING THROUGH NIGHT WITH RIDGE BEHIND IT PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NELY WINDS BEHIND SINKING BOUNDARY SAT AND SUN BEFORE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER SUN NIGHT AND MON FOR STRONG E TO ENE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E GULF AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEA EXPECTED THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES NEARLY W TO E ALONG 33N W OF BERMUDA WHILE GALE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 50W IS LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO THE NE AND TRAILING LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE SRN LEEWARDS TO DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH N OF THE A-B-C'S. PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB ALSO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND RESULTANT NE PLUMES DOWNSTREAM OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE N CARIB PASSAGES ABOUT 5 KT LESS THAN YDA...AND SEAS 1-2 FT LOWER. MORNING OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY IN LEE OF CUBA AND SECONDARY MAX SW OF MONA PASSAGE TO THE S OF HISPANIOLA. BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS E CENTRAL CARIB ACTING TO ENHANCE CNVTN ALONG AND TO SE OF LINGERING SFC TROUGH ACROSS LEEWARDS AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS FAR E CARIB AND LESSER ANTILLES. SFC RIDGE TO SHIFT ESE OVERNIGHT AND FRI AND DEVELOPING TROUGH N OF A-B-C'S WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY W AND AMPLIFY AND ACTING TO BISECT THE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NE WINDS TO THE W OF THROUGH AND SE WINDS TO THE E. THIS SCENARIO EXPECTED THROUGH SUN BEFORE W ATLC COLD FRONT SINKS S AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FL SUN NIGHT-MON AND WILL STRENGTHEN NELY FLOW ACROSS NW CARIB AND WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MON NIGHT. A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA DURING THIS TIME AND PRODUCE SCT-NUM PASSING SHOWERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. GALE CENTER NEAR 27N49W ATTM AND SEEM BETTER DEPICTED BY ECMWF IN TERMS OF POSITION. LINGERING TROUGH TRAILING TO SW EXTENDS ACROSS SRN LEEWARDS AND WILL BEGIN TO DISCONNECT FROM CARIB NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD RIDGE NEARLY W TO E ALONG 33N EXTENDS FROM SE U.S. TO JUST BEYOND BERMUDA AND WILL SHIFT FURTHER ESE THROUGH FRI TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RELAX PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS ACROSS SE AND S PORTIONS. MORNING OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED AN ELONGATED SWATH OF 7-9 FT SEAS IN NE WIND SWELL FROM ABOUT 22N-27N BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND 60W. WINDS HAVE VEERED VERY SLIGHTLY SINCE 12Z AND SEAS APPEARS TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND 1 FT IN GENERAL ACROSS THIS ZONE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SSE INTO THE NW WATERS AND FLORIDA FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG LEADING EDGE. STRONG RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FORCE IT SSE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO PALM BEACH FL BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NE WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS BEHIND FRONT. FRONT TO THEN SHIFT SE AND REACH ABOUT 30N60W TO NW CUBA LATE SUN NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND IT DRIVING 9-11 FT SEAS INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRONT THEN TO REACH SE PORTIONS AND TO NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON NIGHT...WITH DEEP LOW THEN TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS WRN ATLC FOR SIGNIFICANT NLY SWELL POTENTIAL LATER IN WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.