000 AGXX40 KNHC 030521 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 121 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED RIDGE EXTENDS SW JUST INLAND THE TX COAST. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH MON...WITH THE STRONGEST CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OF 15-20 KT OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO FRI EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE... CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF TS OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING WITH THE CURRENT FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL REORIENTATE FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVERYWHERE. REINFORCING HIGH PRES...BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF EARLY FRI...WILL RESULT IN FRESH N- NE WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF LATE FRI...WITH THESE FRESH CONDITIONS SPREADING SW ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS E OF 95W ON SAT. THE EXCEPTION IS AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF STRONG NE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NE WATERS BRIEFLY ON FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REORIENTATE FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ON SUN... WITH FRESH NE-E WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS... FURTHER INCREASING TO STRONG E FLOW OVER THE FAR SE PORTION ON MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CONTINUES SE INTO A NEWLY FORMED WEAK SURFACE LOW AT 14N78W. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO THE E TO W MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR SW WATERS. AN AREA OF SCT RW/ISOL TS NEAR 17N86W WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM 15N70W TO 20N83W WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AT 14N67W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN N-S ORIENTATED TROUGH ALONG 69W TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W ON SAT WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 14N72W ON SUN AND MON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND HIGH PRES WELL TO THE N WILL RESULT IN STRONG NE FLOW TO THE LEE OF CUBA BEGINNING ON MON NIGHT... AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUNRISE TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE LOW/GALE CENTER IS AT 25N50W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM TO ACROSS THE LEEWARDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 31N58W TO PUERTO RICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER AND TO THE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH. THE GALE WINDS WILL OCCUR E OF 55W. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES NE IT WILL TRAIL A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH SW TO THE LEEWARDS THROUGH MIDDAY FRI WHEN IT SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH A SQUALL LINE LIKELY...WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE NE FL COAST ON FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED INITIALLY FRESH N WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO STRONG N-NE WINDS A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NE WINDS TO REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAHAMA CHANNEL AT SUNSET SAT...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY MIDDAY SUN. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...AND FROM 31N58W TO E CUBA ON SUN NIGHT. THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL REACH HISPANIOLA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.