000 AGXX40 KNHC 021834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT WED NOV 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE NW ATLC AND EASTERN SEABOARD IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SE TODAY AND WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO VEER SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. STRONG ENE TO ESE WINDS ACROSS THE S HALF OF BASIN OF RECENT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF 6-8 FT SEAS FROM STRAITS OF FL WNW TO AROUND 25N94W. A 1238 ALTIMETER PASS SAMPLED SEAS AT 7-8.75 FT ALONG 24N85W THIS MORNING. DOWNSTREAM SEAS ARE 5-6 FT ACROSS NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF S TX. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME MORE E TO W ALIGNED THROUGH FRI MORNING AND ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS...WITH PEAK CONDITIONS FRI MORNING JUST OFFSHORE OF NW YUCATAN COAST AT 15-20 KT AND 5-6 FT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF FRI MORNING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF FRI...WITH THESE FRESH CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS E OF 95W ON FRI NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL REORIENTED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ON SUN...WITH FRESH NE-E WINDS CONTINUING FROM NE WATERS TO S CENTRAL WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS FROM NE CARIB SW TO NEAR 14.5N70W THEN W TO NEAR 80W WITH WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT MOST OF THIS TROUGH. MEANWHILE A NEARLY W TO E TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES UNDER UPPER RIDGING. STRONG NE WINDS ARE BLASTING ACROSS AND AROUND THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA...AND MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES WHERE DOWNSTREAM SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE AND POTENTIALLY TO 9 FT NE OF JAMAICA. BROAD LOW PRES LOOKS TO PERSISTS OF PUERTO RICO ALONG THE TROUGH AND BEING FORCED SW BY STRONG LLVL FLOW THROUGH MONA PASSAGE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS PREVAIL S OF THIS TROUGH. TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS WILL MEANDER OVERNIGHT AND THU AS A GALE CENTER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ATLC TO THE NE OF LEEWARDS AND MOVES NE AND DISCONNECTS FROM CARIB PORTION OF TROUGH. THIS E CARIB TROUGH WILL THEN WEAKEN THU THROUGH FRI AND LOW OPENS UP AND A BROAD NNE-SSW TROUGH EVOLVES AND SHIFT SLOWLY W TO ALONG ABOUT PR TO NE COLOMBIA FRI. STRONG NE WINDS CURRENTLY DOMINATING W HALF OF CARIB N OF TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS W ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS...AND WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO ENE. OVER THE WEEKEND THE E CARIB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE N TO S ALIGNED AND SHIFT JUST W OF 70W AND COMBINE WITH NEW RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC TO PRODUCE FRESH NE WIND W OF TROUGH AND FRESH SE WINDS E OF TROUGH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAK FRONTAL REMNANTS SINKING S ACROSS THE WATERS TO ALONG ABOUT 25N WHILE STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE TO THE S OF THIS FRONT AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND CARIB PASSAGES. AN ELONGATED AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS PREVAILS JUST TO THE S OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE 7-8 FT SEAS GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM S OF 25N AND W OF 63W INTO SE BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO MONA PASSAGE. RIDGE TO THE N ACROSS THE NW ATLC AND EASTERN SEABOARD IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SE AND WILL MOVE TO ALONG ABOUT 30N BY FRI MORNING AND MORE W TO E ALIGNED...ALLOWING PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS FRI MORNING AND SHIFT SE...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FL BY SAT EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL KICK UP SEAS AND DYNAMIC OR MOVING FETCH COULD ALLOW FOR 9-10 FT NE SEAS TO MOVE INTO N ENTRANCE OF STRAITS-NW BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE AGAINST CURRENT SCENARIO. LINGERING INVERTED TROUGHING A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM HISPANIOLA N THEN NEWARD TO YIELD MODERATE N WINDS BETWEEN TROUGH AND NEW FRONT AND MODERATE SLY WINDS TO E OF TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS INDICATING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS W ATLC TO THE NW AND THEN N OF BERMUDA NEXT WEEK AND WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL GENERATOR FOR THE W ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.