000 AGXX40 KNHC 011808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 208 PM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DOMINATING THE WEATHER WITH MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF...AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NE GULF ON FRIDAY AND THE SE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD...EAST OF ABOUT 92W FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER PUERTO RICO IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK WITH ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ON THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND THE WATERS TO THE S OF S CENTRAL HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THESE WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE JUST N OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS S OF 27N OVER FORECAST WATERS WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM NW OF THE LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE OVER THE NW WATERS FRIDAY...REACHING FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO NEAR EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL OCCUR TO THE NW OF THIS FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT NW OF THE FRONT BY SUNDAY. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.