000 AGXX40 KNHC 010510 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AT EXTREME SW LA AND CONTINUES S ALONG THE TX COAST TO OVER EXTREME NE MEXICO. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SAT...WITH THE STRONGEST CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OF 10-15 KT OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF UPPER CYCLONES OVER CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTS MOISTURE N ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF TS OVER THE W- CENTRAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR AXIS IS STILL EVIDENT EXTENDING W FROM THE FL STRAITS TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ONLY INTERMITTENT RW IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL BE DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N TO 26N E OF 92W WITH EMBEDDED SWATHS OF STRONG NE WINDS WHERE SEAS MAX AT 8 FT. LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST THROUGH WED...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED NIGHT AND THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO MODERATE ON FRI. REINFORCING HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRI WILL RESULT IN FRESH N WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF EARLY FRI...WITH THESE FRESH CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS E OF 92W FRI NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N88W TO 15N83W TO 10N81W... WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO DRIFT S TODAY AND WED AND EXTEND NW TO SE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN DRIFT FURTHER S AND MERGE INTO THE W TO E ORIENTATED MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 09N LATE IN THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL AND E CUBA THIS MORNING...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE FLOW FORECAST EVERYWHERE N OF 18.5N W OF 75W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGES...THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE WED NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW DIMINISHING TO FRESH ON THU...AND TO LIGHT NE WINDS ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA ON WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE LATE THIS WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 31N77W. AN E TO W SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMA CHANNEL AND THE FL STRAITS. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29.5N65W ACCOMPANIED BY SCT TS. A TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 24N55W TO A SURFACE LOW PRES AT 20N66W...WITH FRESH E WINDS OBSERVED WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM N OF ITS CENTER. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL DRIFT S AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW FORMS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 19N60W...AND RACES OFF TO THE NE REACHING NEAR 24N51W ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ON THU INTO FRI. BY THEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL RESULT IN FRESH NE FLOW EVERYWHERE...WITH EMBEDDED SWATHS OF STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NW WATERS...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS...WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA HAITI ON SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER..WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.