000 AGXX40 KNHC 311722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 122 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES IS N OF THE AREA OVER S CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REACHING FROM 26N94W TO 22N94W TO 19N93W. THE WESTERN GULF IS UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE A SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO LINGER FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE SHEAR LINE AND E OF 90W...AND FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE UP TO 7 FT NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...4-6 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 26N AND IN THE NW GULF...AND 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF. THE HIGH CENTER OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL SHIFT TO THE E OVER THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUE... WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO RELAX. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY FRI MORNING...REACHING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ELONGATED LOW PRES CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN STEMMING FROM 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N82.5W...TO THE NW NEAR 20N86.5W AND TO THE S NEAR 13N82W. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH WHERE WINDS ARE FUNNELING UP ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW SEAS UP TO 7 FT NEAR THE STRONGEST WINDS. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ALSO PERSISTS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH ONLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS AN IMPRESSIVE PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE LOW PRES AREA NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE TROUGHING LINGERS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE N ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND DOWNWIND AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW ALSO SETTING UP S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI...NEARING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 27N69W...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. A SHEARLINE REACHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. LOW PRES AT 1010 MB IS NEAR 21N66W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE E QUADRANT. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS JUST N OF THE SHEARLINE WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE AND W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT S-SW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PUSHING S OF THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N. THIS REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG S OF 27N TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE INCREASING NE-E FLOW WILL BUILD FRESH SEAS TO 6-9 FT S OF 27N...AND 5-8 FT N OF 27N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS THE PRES GRADIENT WILL START TO WEAKEN BY WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BY THU ACROSS THE BASIN AS A RESULT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-6 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION FROM THE SE CONUS THU NIGHT...MOVING INTO ZONE AMZ111 BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SE DURING THE DAY FRI BEFORE SLOWING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER..WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.