000 AGXX40 KNHC 310545 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AT EXTREME SW LA AND CONTINUES S ALONG THE TX COAST TO A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH JUST INLAND MEXICO AT 23N98W. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH FRI WITH THE STRONGEST CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOONS. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG THE TX COAST INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EPAC AT 17N104W...WHICH IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY WESTWARD. CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THIS CYCLONE IS ADVECTING A 360 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE NNE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SW GULF WITH THE MOISTURE THEN TURNING E AND COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. THIS UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO INTERMITTENT TSTMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...SO WILL DENOTE ISOL TS IN WEATHER GRIDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE SE GULF AS WELL WHERE A SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED AND TS CONTINUE TO FLARE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY WITH NARROW BANDS OF STRONG NE-E WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS INCLUDING THE FL STRAITS EMBEDDED WITHIN FRESH NE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE SE GULF. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD SW ACROSS THE N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TUE. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BEGINNING TUE NIGHT...STILL EXPECT INTERMITTENT STRONG PULSES ACROSS THE SE GULF THROUGH WED. STRONG NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SW GULF S OF THE MEANDERING TROUGH AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERACRUZ. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 18N84.5W IS FILLING. EXPECT TO LOW TO OPEN INTO A NW TO SE ORIENTATED TROUGH TODAY THAT WILL DRIFT SW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON TUE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N79W WITH UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE OBSERVED AROUND ITS PERIPHERY AND CONTRIBUTES TO ISOL TS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT RESULTING IN FRESH NE FLOW TO RESUME ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA. BY LATE TUE FRESH TO NE FLOW FORECAST N OF 18N W OF 75W INCLUDING BY THE YUCATAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON WED NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW DIMINISHING TO FRESH ON THU AND TO LIGHT NE WINDS ON FRI. LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE LATE THIS WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS STALLING FROM 31N60W TO 28N78W. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N68W TO THE FL STRAITS WITH SCT TS NEAR 24N81W. BROAD LOW PRES IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW AT 22N69W WITH STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OVER ITS N SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW WILL MERGE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 26N55W TO MONA PASSAGE ON TUE WITH SEVERAL OTHER EMBEDDED LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. BY THEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL RESULT IN FRESH NE FLOW EVERYWHERE WITH EMBEDDED SWATHS OF STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N...INCLUDING THE BAHAMA CHANNEL. THE SURFACE LOW...OR LOWS... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE ALONG THE TROUGH LATE TUE REACHING NEAR 21N59W MIDDAY WED WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT OR MORE LIKELY A TROUGH SE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS FORMING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL THEN RACE NE TO NEAR 23N55W ON WED NIGHT TRAILING THE TROUGH SW ACROSS THE LEEWARDS WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE LOW RACES OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER..WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.