000 AGXX40 KNHC 301804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 204 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND S-CENTRAL GULF...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 23N-27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT BASED ON BUOY AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES SYSTEM ON TUE...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED... MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SIMILAR MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THU. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT ACROSS THE SE WATERS. A RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY EARLY MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OF 1010 MB REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM ON THE NW AND SW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THU. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND WEAKEN S OF PUERTO RICO ON MON. SEAS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT WHILE SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN NE-E SWELL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE STILL NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...BUT MAINLY FROM 23N-29N W OF 72W...WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MAINLY S OF 27N MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS A STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THIS STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG 27N LATER TODAY...THEN STALL ON MON AND DISSIPATE ON TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE N WATERS ON TUE...AND BE NEAR 27N BY EARLY WED MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 22N64W. CONVECTION IS ON INCREASE NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM SE OF THE LOW. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE CENTER. BASED ON LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS...THIS LOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER..WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.