000 AGXX40 KNHC 300607 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 207 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AT SW LA AND CONTINUES S ALONG THE TX COAST TO A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH JUST INLAND MEXICO AT 22N99W. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH THU WITH THE MOST STRONGEST CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER BROWNSVILLE TX AND IS MOVING W WITH TIME WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE EPAC AT 13N104W...WHICH IS ALSO PROGRESSING WESTWARD. CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE EPAC CYCLONE IS ADVECTING A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE NNE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SW GULF AND MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE TX CYCLONE. THIS UPPER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTES TO INTERMITTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GULF...SO WILL CARRY ISOL TS IN WEATHER GRIDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE SE GULF AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NE-E WINDS...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS...ACROSS THE SE WATERS INCLUDING THE FL STRAITS THROUGH THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT EXTENDING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS EVENING. STRONG NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SW GULF S OF THE MEANDERING TROUGH AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERACRUZ. EXPECT MOSTLY FRESH NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS TILL LATE MON WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN SUPPORTING EMBEDDED PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FL...WITH THESE STRONG CONDITIONS SPREADING SW ACROSS THE NE APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE...AND CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW AT 18N84W IS FILLING. EXPECT TO LOW TO OPEN INTO A NW TO SE ORIENTATED TROUGH TODAY THAT WILL DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MON. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N77W WITH UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE OBSERVED AROUND ITS PERIPHERY AND CONTRIBUTES TO ISOL TS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W WILL E CARIBBEAN TODAY SUN INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RW. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE TILL MON NIGHT WHEN REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT RESULTING IN FRESH NE FLOW TO RESUME ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON TUE WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE N OF 17N W OF 78W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...BY LATE TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A BROAD TROUGH FROM 30N60W TO 19N66W WILL DRIFT W AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N ALONG 67W ON MON AND TUE WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 22N66W ON TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WITH 7-10 FT SEAS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 23N TO 29N W OF 73W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON MON WITH STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMA CHANNEL. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH STRONG NE FLOW FORECAST S OF 27N W OF 62W BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. BY THEN THE WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 22N60W ON WED NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT. THIS LOW WILL THEN RACE NE TO NEAR 27N55W ON THU NIGHT TRAILING A FRONT SW ACROSS THE LEEWARDS. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.