000 AGXX40 KNHC 291813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 213 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND S-CENTRAL GULF...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE E OF 87W AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 87W-95W. WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 9-12 FT RANGE. SUN THROUGH TUE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE SE WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF BY TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL BE REINFORCING BY ANOTHER HIGH PRES SYSTEM LATE TUE KEEPING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION. A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF IS RESULTING IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS...FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OF 1008 MB REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND NOW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. THIS MORNING...SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER...PARTICULARLY N OF 19N W OF 80W. HOWEVER...A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW BETWEEN THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE LOW CENTER WHERE WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED. WINDS N OF THE LOW CENTER HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT S AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH ON SUN AND DISSIPATE ON MON. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN N OF AREA...STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF CUBA LATE TUE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N W OF 74W TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W WILL LOSE IDENTITY BY SUN. A TROUGH CURRENTLY N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE W PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND REACHING THE WATERS NE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE STILL NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...BUT MAINLY S OF 29N W OF 70W...WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME ON SUN AND MON...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS A STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THIS STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING THE N WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG 27N ON SUN...THEN STALL ON MON AND DISSIPATE ON TUE. A TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE W THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON SUN. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N63W TO 20N64W WILL CONTINUE W PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND STALLING NE OF HISPANIOLA SUN THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 23N70W BY MON...THEN MOVE SE TO A POSITION NEAR 21N68W ON TUE. BASED ON LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS...THIS LOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.