000 AGXX40 KNHC 290512 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 112 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM SW LA TO NEAR SE TX. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH WED. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N94W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO ANOTHER OVER THE EPAC AT 14N101W. CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE EPAC CYCLONE IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE N ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SUPPORTING INTERMITTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH... SO WILL CARRY TS IN WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS SW GULF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EMBEDDED RW/TS...SO WILL FORECAST ISOLATED TS THERE TODAY AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING STRONG NE-E WINDS...WITH 7-11 FT SEAS...ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND SE GULF TO INCLUDE THE FL STRAITS. STRONG NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN OVER THE FAR SW GULF S OF THE MEANDERING TROUGH AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERACRUZ...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WHEN SEAS WILL BUILD BRIEFLY TO 8 FT. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH MOSTLY FRESH E FLOW ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS TILL LATE MON WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN SUPPORTING EMBEDDED PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING INITIALLY ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND THE N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE AND WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW AT 18.5N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N79W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT S ON SUN...WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MON. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER EXTREME N COLOMBIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NNW TO ACROSS W CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN SUPPORTING CONVECTION TO THE N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 87W. SO WILL FORECAST SCT RW/ISOL TS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 73W ...AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS N OF 19N E OF ITS AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE W PASSING THROUGH THE PUERTO RICO AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS LATE TONIGHT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RW. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE TILL MON NIGHT WHEN REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT RESULTING IN FRESH NE FLOW TO RESUME ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF CUBA. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON TUE WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE N OF 17N W OF 78W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ON TUE NIGHT. STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 25N74W AND IS DRIFTING NW AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED S OF 24N ALONG 73W WILL MOVE W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WATERS W OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE- E WINDS WITH MAX SEAS 9-11 FT ACROSS THE AREA S OF 28N W OF 72W. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON MON NIGHT WITH STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN FROM 22N TO 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE FLOW FORECAST S OF 27N W OF 62W BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.