000 AGXX40 KNHC 281809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND S-CENTRAL GULF...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THOSE WATERS...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. EAST SWELL FROM THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE WWD TO NEAR 92W BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SUN THROUGH TUE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SE WATERS. BY THEN...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE NIGHT. A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF IS RESULTING IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THE RIDGE N OF THE GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SAT THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OF 1009 MB REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA. THESE WINDS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS W OF 84W... INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. HIGHEST SEAS ARE N OF 20N BASED ON A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OF HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA THROUGH SAT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 71W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST THEN WILL BECOME ILL DEFINED ON SAT. A TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO ON SAT...THEN WILL BE NE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE WATERS WILL DRIFT NW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE STILL NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA NW OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS. COMBINED SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT ARE NOTED E OF THE BAHAMAS BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX ON SUN AND MON THEN TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE MON INTO TUE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 27N BY TUE NIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO ON SAT...THEN WILL BE NE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN. A LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ON MON. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.