000 AGXX40 KNHC 280525 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM SW LA TO THE W-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM SE LA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TS PER LIGHTNING DATA. SCATTERED TS ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE SW GULF...AND BOTH THESE AREAS WILL BE CARRIED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE 1ST 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING STRONG NE-E WINDS...WITH 7-11 FT SEAS...ACROSS THE SE GULF. STRONG NW FLOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE FAR SW GULF S OF THE TROUGH...AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WITH MAX SEAS OF 7 FT. EXPECT THE STRONG NE-E FLOW TO SPREAD W ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE ON MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN OVER THE SE WATERS ON MON NIGHT WITH STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES W FROM HAITI TO ALONG NORTHERN JAMAICA INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN RECENTLY ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW AT 18.5N85W...WHICH IN TURN TRAILS A SURFACE TROUGH S TO NEAR 12N82W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY SAT AS THE SHEAR LINE DRIFTS N AND GRADUALLY LOSES IDENTITY BY SUN. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER EXTREME N COLOMBIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NNW TO ACROSS CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE N OF 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W...AND SMALLER AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TS ALONG THE SHEAR LINE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SOON IDENTITY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS E OF ITS AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE W PASSING THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND REACH THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO LATE SAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE TILL EARLY MON WHEN REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG NE FLOW TO RESUME ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF CENTRAL CUBA...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE N OF 19N W OF 73W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ON TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 26N65W TO HAITI WHERE IT IS ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W AND NW...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS NW OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WITH MAX SEAS 12-14 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS NE OF THE LOWER BAHAMIAN CHAIN. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE SAT...EXCEPT STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAHAMA CHANNEL AND FL STRAITS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON MON WITH STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN FROM 22N TO 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.