000 AGXX40 KNHC 271801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS PRODUCED A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THOSE WATERS...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF E OF 84W. COMBINED SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 11 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH FRI...AND TO THE S CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS WEST ALONG THE N GULF COAST. E SWELL FROM THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE WWD TO NEAR 92W BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECAY FRI THROUGH LATE SAT. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUN WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ON FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT ON FRI. THE RIDGE N OF THE GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SAT THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...CORRECTED MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO ALONG NRN JAMAICA TO NEAR 18N86W. STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO ITS NW. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF THE SHEARLINE IN THE LEE OF CUBA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS HAVE BUILD TO 7-10 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS. THE SHEARLINE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE BECOMES DIFFUSE. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS HELPING TO INDUCE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER...OR POSSIBLY TWO...IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BY THIS EVENING...BUT PARTICULARLY JUST N OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 67W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WILL BECOME ILL DEFINED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N55W TO 17N56 WILL MOVE WWD...AND PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRI. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEARLINE EXTENDS OVER THE SE WATERS AND WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES N AND NW OF THE SHEARLINE IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH AN AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE BAHAMAS...MAINLY FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. NOAA BUOY 41046 IS NOW REPORTING COMBINED SEAS OF 15 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS ALSO INDICATES SEAS OF 12-14.5 FT IN THE SAME AREA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS SOME. A NEW HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD OVER THE SE U.S. COAST ON SAT...RE-ENFORCING THE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA S OF 28N. WINDS THEN DIMINISH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM E TO W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.