000 AGXX40 KNHC 270800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS PRODUCED A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THOSE WATERS...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FL. THE 0210Z ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT NICELY REVEALED THE WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS. E WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MODERATE TO FRESH ELSEWHERE E OF 89W. COMBINED WAVEHEIGHTS HAVE BUILD TO 11 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FL PER AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND TO 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 25N E OF 84W WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE SE GULF OFFSHORE WATERS WITH PEAK SEAS OF 12 FT...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH FRI...AND TO THE S CNTRL GULF WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS WEST ALONG THE N GULF COAST. E SWELL FROM THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE WWD TO NEAR 91W BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECAY FRI THROUGH LATE SAT. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR SW GULF AND HIGH PRES RIDGING TO ITS NW IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUN WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ON FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8-9 FT ON FRI. THE RIDGE N OF THE GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SAT THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM SRN HAITI SW TO ALONG NRN JAMAICA...AND TO NEAR 20N86W. STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO ITS NW. THE 0208Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF THE SHEARLINE. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS HAVE BUILD TO 7-10 FT TODAY. THE SHEARLINE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE BECOMES DIFFUSE. A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND STRETCHES SWD TO WRN GUATEMALA. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT AND GENERATE AN EXTENSIVE AREA AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST OF NE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AS GLOBAL MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAL LOW PRES CENTER...OR POSSIBLY TWO...IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BY THIS EVENING. THE NRN MOST LOW ON THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION ...WHILE THE ONE THE LOWER PART OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN BECOME ILL-DEFINED AFTERWARDS. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 66W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THIS WAVE TO BECOME ILL DEFINED. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG A PSN FROM 23N55W TO 16N56W WILL MOVE WWD...AND PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRI WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 24N65W AND SHEARLINE FROM THERE TO ACROSS THE CNTRL SECTION OF HISPANIOLA...AND SW TO SRN HAITI. THE SHEARLINE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...THEN WEAKEN. STRONG HIGH PRES PRESENTLY OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE WRN PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS...20-30 KT...ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0210Z LAST NICELY DEPICTED THESE WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY SUPPORTING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT FROM THE ATLC EXPOSURES OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTH FLORIDA TO 30N...EASTWARD TO THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. THESE SEAS WILL ALSO SEEP INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE PROTECTED WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS E OF THE GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN FRI INTO FRI NIGHT ...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL STILL COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 27N W OF 75W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FURTHER SUN INTO MON. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.