000 AGXX40 KNHC 261811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS BRINGING AN INCREASE OF NE TO E WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT N OF 26N E OF 86W AND 20 TO 25 KT S OF 26N E OF 86W WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE SE GULF OFFSHORE WATERS WITH PEAK SEAS OF 12 FT...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THURSDAY MORNING...AND 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...REACHING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS WEST ALONG THE N GULF COAST. SWELL TO 8 FT WILL SPREAD WEST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE INCREASE IN WINDS. ALSO ON THURSDAY...WINDS FUNNELING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WILL BRING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THE RIDGE N OF THE GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR THE COAST OF NE HONDURAS. THIS SHEARLINE WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE THE WIND DIFFERENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE BECOMES DIFFUSE...THUS DISSIPATING THE BOUNDARY. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HELPING TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE DRIFTING SLOWLY NW THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 65W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THIS WAVE TO BECOME ILL DEFINED. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM 19N52W TO 14N55W WILL MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO 25N65W AND SHEARLINE FROM 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITES STATES AND WESTERN ATLC. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS...20 TO 30 KT...ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY SUPPORTING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT FROM THE ATLC EXPOSURES OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTH FLORIDA TO 30N...EASTWARD TO THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. THESE SEAS WILL ALSO SEEP INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE PROTECTED WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS E OF THE GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 8 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL STILL COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 27N W OF 75W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FURTHER SUN INTO MON. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO/COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.