000 AGXX40 KNHC 260813 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 CORRECTED CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. IS KEEPING CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE SE WATER PORTION AND STRAITS OF FL A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE IS BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS. THE CURRENT BUOY REPORTS AND LATEST ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT OVER MUCH THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE S OF 25N E OF 85W WITH EVEN HIGHER SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FL. LOWER SEA HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT N OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO 28N90W TO 29.5N86W TO N OF THE UPPER FL KEYS. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES. THE CURRENT HIGH PRES IN PLACE WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS A LITTLE. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE STRAITS OF FL...TO 11 OR 12 FT...THROUGH SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WWD TO THE MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF FRI THROUGH SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUN. WITH THESE WINDS... SEAS OF 7-10 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. THE SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT ON SUN. STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF ZONE GMZ023 ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ BEGINNING THU NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...CORRECTED MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEARLINE STRETCHES FROM NW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO JAMAICA...AND TO JUST N OF NE HONDURAS AS OF 06Z. STRONG HIGH PRES IS TO ITS N. A TRPCL WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 63W/64W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. FRESH NE WINDS EXIST W OF THE SHEARLINE...EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS PRESENT TO THE E OF THE SHEARLINE. RECENT AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA REVEAL MODERATE NE-E WINDS E OF THE SHEARLINE. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT BETWEEN 70W AND 81W...AND 5-6 FT W OF 81W...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT JUST SW OF THE CUBAN COAST...AND ALSO S OF 16N W OF 81W. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE E OF 72W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE SHEARLINE ENHANCED BY A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SSW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO S OF 13N E OF 82W ALONG THE ERN SEGMENT OF THE ERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SHEARLINE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY LATE THU AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES RIDGING TO ITS N SHIFTS EWD ALLOWING FOR THE FRESH NE WINDS W OF IT TO BECOME NE- E IN DIRECTION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A NW TO SE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WITH BROAD LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY THU AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND LOW PRES ALONG IT WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO MODERATE WINDS FRI EVENING AND TO GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE TRPCL WAVE ALONG 63W/64W WILL REACH NEAR 65W/66W THIS EVENING...NEAR 68W/69W BY EARLY THU EVENING...AND WEAKEN AS IT PASSES S OF HISPANIOLA LATE THU NIGHT. IN THE TRPCL N ATLC...LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS ARE NOTED. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 51W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WWD PASSING ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL TRPCL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH FRI...THEN REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THOSE WATERS FRI EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE TRPCL N ATLC AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THOSE WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N65W SW TO NW HAITI AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE N CNTRL CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRES RIDGING IS ANALYZED TO NW OF THE SHEARLINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BASIN ALONG 62W FROM 19N TO 25N. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM 0230Z LAST NIGHT SHOW FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS W OF THE SHEARLINE... INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SUSTAINED NE WINDS OF 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE CONFINED TO S OF 25N W OF 81W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FL WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE UP TO 11 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE N OF 25N. THE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-6 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT BETWEEN A LINE FROM 28N65W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS...AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 23N65W TO 20N70W. SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE SE OF THE SECOND LINE. LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE N AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH EVEN LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT CONFINED TO N OF 28N W OF 79W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG A PSN FROM 31N63W TO 29N74W WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE FAR N CNTRL AND NE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES THE U.S. ERN SEABOARD WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND EXPAND EWD THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN SOME LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. A NEW HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON SAT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING FORECAST TO PRESS SWD OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS WHILE WEAKENING INTO SUN. HOWEVER...THE RESULTANT GRADIENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF MAINLY 27N AND W OF ABOUT 75W. THESE WINDS DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY IN SUN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING IN A LARGE FETCH AREA...AND LAST INTO THU EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT ON FRI NIGHT...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON SUN. THE SEAS OF UP 11 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FL WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN TRPCL N ATLC WATERS INTO THE FAR SE PART OF THE BASIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHILE WEAKENING. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.