000 AGXX40 KNHC 251802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GULF COAST DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS. A RE- ENFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 26N AND 20 TO 25 KT S OF 26N. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT OVER THE SE GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD TO THE S CENTRAL GULF. BY THURSDAY EVENING...WINDS FUNNELING SOUTHWARD BETWEEN A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND HIGHER PRESSURES OVER MEXICO WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SHEAR LINE THAT HAS PERSISTED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS A RE- ENFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE LEE OF CUBA...AND 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NW INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MODERATE NE TO E TRADES WILL PREVAIL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE ATLC WATERS FROM AROUND 30N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS STILL IN TACT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 21N AND W OF 65W WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE ATLC EXPOSURES OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLC WATERS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS TO AROUND 65W. ALSO...THE NE TO E FETCH OF WIND ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ON FRIDAY. THEN ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.