000 AGXX40 KNHC 250758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. IS KEEPING CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE SE WATER PORTION AND STRAITS OF FL WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THERE. THE CURRENT BUOY REPORTS AND LATEST ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT OVER MUCH THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN THE STRAITS OF FL...AND LOWER SEA HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT N OF A LINE FROM 20N96W TO 27N93W TO 27N86W TO N OF THE MIDDLE FL KEYS. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES. THE CURRENT HIGH PRES IN PLACE WILL KEEP FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ELY WINDS ELSEWHERE. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SWD OVER THE WRN ATLC AND ERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THU NIGHT LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FL. IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASE OF WINDS...SEAS WILL BE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT TONIGHT IN THE SE GULF AND REACH TO 10 FT FRI THROUGH SAT. SEAS IN THE STRAITS OF FL WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS THE NE TO E WIND FLOW OPPOSES THE COUNTER LOOP CURRENT DURING THIS PERIOD ALLOWING FOR LARGE GROWTH OF SEAS THERE. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WWD AND EXPAND NWD THROUGH SAT TO AFFECT THE ERN PORTION OF ZONE GMZ019 AND THE FAR SRN PART OF ZONE GMZ015 ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE WATERS OF ZONE GMZ019...AND TO 8-9 FT FT IN THE FAR SRN PART OF ZONE GMZ015. STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF ZONE GMZ023 ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ BEGINNING THU NIGHT...AND REACH TO POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE FRI THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OF THE PAST 3 DAYS HAS TRANSITIONED TO A SHEARLINE FROM FAR ERN CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NEAR 18N85W PER THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ESE TO THE NW OF THE SHEARLINE. A TRPCL WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. FRESH NE WINDS EXIST W OF THE SHEARLINE...EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AS INDICATED IN THE 0250Z ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS PRESENT TO THE E OF THE SHEARLINE. RECENT AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA REVEAL MODERATE NE-E WINDS E OF THE SHEARLINE. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT W OF 72W...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT NEAR THE LEE OF CUBA...AND ALSO S OF 16N W OF 81W. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE E OF 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N- 15N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 65W. THE SHEARLINE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY THU AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES RIDGING TO ITS N SHIFTS EWD ALLOWING FOR THE FRESH NE WINDS W OF IT TO BECOME NE-E IN DIRECTION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT A NW TO SE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WITH BROAD LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY THU AND MOVE LITTLE INTO SAT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH/LOW PRES WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO MODERATE WINDS FRI EVENING AND TO GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE TRPCL WAVE ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REACH NEAR 63W/64W EARLY THIS EVENING...NEAR 67W/68W EARLY WED EVENING AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN ON THU. IN THE TRPCL N ATLC...WINDS ARE MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E IN DIRECTION N OF 13N AND GENTLE E-SE S OF 13N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST WITH THESE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BATCH OF NE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR ERN SECTIONS OF THESE WATERS ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING 50W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WWD PASSING ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL TRPCL N ATLC WATERS WED THROUGH FRI... AND REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THOSE WATERS FRI EVENING. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE TRPCL N ATLC AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THOSE WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N65W SW TO THE ERN CUBA AND VICINITY WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE SW ACROSS THE N CNTRL CARIBBEAN SEA. A HIGH PRES RIDGE IS ALONG 30N W OF 70W. A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N63W SW TO JUST N OF THE NE SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF ABOUT 26N E OF 71W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS S OF 26N...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN THE FAR SW WATERS S OF 24N W OF 81W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FL. GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS ARE N OF 26N...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS. THE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-6 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE N AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT HIGHER SEAS OF 5-7 FT S 24N W OF 81W. THE HIGHEST OF THIS RANGE IS IN THE STRAITS OF FL. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE NRN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST E OF THE NE WATERS WED NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES THE U.S. ERN SEABOARD WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND EXPAND EWD THROUGH THU. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN SOME LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. A NEW HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON SAT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING FORECAST TO PRESS SWD OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THOSE WATERS WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS THERE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY WED EVENING IN A LARGE FETCH AREA...AND LAST INTO THU EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 8 FT ON FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGHER...IN THE 7-10 FT S OF 25N AND W OF 79W FRI NIGHT AND SAT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN TRPCL N ATLC WATERS INTO THE FAR SE PART OF THE BASIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ONLY A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT OF MAINLY MODERATE WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.