000 AGXX40 KNHC 241816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. IS KEEPING CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH A EXCEPTION IN THE FAR SE WATER AND STRAITS OF FL WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THERE. THE CURRENT BUOY REPORTS AND LATEST ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT OVER MUCH THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN THE STRAITS OF FL...AND LOWER SEA HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT N OF A LINE FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO 28N88W TO N OF THE FL KEYS. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES. THE CURRENT HIGH PRES IN PLACE WILL KEEP FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL THROUGH TUE MORNING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ELY WINDS ELSEWHERE. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SWD OVER THE WRN ATLC AND ERN GULF WATERS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE ERN GULF...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FL. IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASE OF WINDS...SEAS WILL BE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 FT IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE WINDS OPPOSE COUNTER LOOP CURRENT FLOW CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE GROWTH OF SEAS. THESE SEAS SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE ERN PORTION OF ZONE GMZ019 THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS AND ERN CARIBBEAN SEA WED NIGHT ONWARD. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR ERN CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 18N85W PER THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT TO THE NW OF THE FRONT WHERE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE WINDS . A SOLID AREA OF NE 20 KT WINDS ARE IN THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. NE WINDS OF 25 KT ARE VERY POSSIBLE TO EXIST WITHIN THE NE 20 KT WIND AREA. E OF THE FRONT...RECENT AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS REVEAL MODERATE NE-E WINDS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT IN MOST SECTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND WRN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT SW OF A LINE FROM CNTRL BELIZE TO 15N82W TO NRN PANAMA AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND ALSO IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN SECTIONS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SHEARLINE MOST LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS THE N CNTRL AND NW PORTIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH THE FRESH WINDS NE THERE BECOMING MORE NE-E IN DIRECTION THROUGH FRI. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT THAT BROAD LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AND TRACK IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES MATERIALIZE...THEN THE FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MAY POSSIBLY INCREASE SOME MORE. PRESENTLY CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS BELOW HIGH THRESHOLD. WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE. THE FRESH NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO LOCALLY STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY BECOME MORE OF A RESULT OF THE GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW PRES AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S FROM THE U.S. ERN SEABOARD OVER THE WRN ATLC WATERS. IN THE TRPCL N ATLC...WINDS ARE MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E IN DIRECTION N OF 13N AND GENTLE E-SE S OF 13N. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN E SWELL N OF 15N...AND 4-5 FT S OF 15N. THE E SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH TUE ALLOWING FOR THE 5-7 FT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR 5-6 FT IN THE FAR NE PART OF ZONE AMZ027. A TRPCL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG A PSN FROM 17N56W TO 09N59W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT AS OF 12Z. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TRPCL N ATLC THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E OF THE TRPCL WAVE AND WILL MOVE WWD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS...THEN TO THE NW POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR NE PART OF THE TRPCL N ATLC THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N65W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND TO ERN TIP OF CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE PER THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N65W SW TO THE ERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF FRESH NE WINDS FROM 23N TO 25N W OF THE FRONT TO ACROSS THE CNTRL BAHAMAS AND GENTLE N-NE WINDS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE SW OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FL. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT N OF 29N E OF 68W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE SW OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FL AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE THIS EVENING THROUGH THU THEN BECOME LESS DISTINCT THU NIGHT AND FRI. ON TUE A LARGE AREA OF STRONGER HIGH PRES FROM THE U.S. ERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SWD ACROSS THE BASIN AND EXPAND EWD THROUGH THU BEFORE WEAKENING THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA N OF 30N THROUGH WED. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASE THE NE-E WINDS TO THE STRONG CATEGORY OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE FAR N AND SE PORTIONS. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCES SUGGEST SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY WED EVENING IN A LARGE FETCH AREA...AND LASTING INTO THU EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AROUND 9 FT ON FRI. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.