000 AGXX40 KNHC 231811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE GULF THE PAST 36 HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS. THE EXCEPTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WHERE WINDS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE NW AT 10 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...MERGING WITH THE OTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. SEAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL BUILD TO 8 FT WITH LOCALLY 10 FT SEAS LIKELY ALONG THE LONGER FETCH OF WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND REACH FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR THE COAST OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THIS AREA MONDAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 53W/54W S OF 18N WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR WITH THIS WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH THE WAVE LESSEN IN RESPONSE TO A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N64W TO 25N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS S AND E...EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO 24N66W TO 20N72W BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THIS AREA AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH S OF 25 N THROUGH TUESDAY. N OF 25 N...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN TACT DUE TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...ON TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FORCE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST WATERS LASTING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS REACHING NEAR THE OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF N FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.