000 AGXX40 KNHC 221837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS RAPIDLY MOVING SE AND WILL EXIT THE SE GULF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WEST OF 95W. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NE WINDS OVER THE GULF BASIN AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. A RE-ENFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND BECOME STALLED OUT FROM NEAR W HISPANIOLA TO NE HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY SLOWLY DISSIPATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SPREADING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SPREAD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG LEE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 30N59W TO 24N64W TO 20N73W SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR 31N66W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 62W THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 75W AS WELL THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS OUR ZONES WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT EARLY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM A STATIONARY FRONT TO A TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS W OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT GENTLE WINDS OFFSHORE N FLORIDA...AND MODERATE TO FRESH BETWEEN E CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ANYWHERE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS TO THE BAHAMAS NORTHEAST TO 30N65W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER THIS LARGE FETCH OF STRONGER WINDS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.