000 AGXX40 KNHC 220705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING HEADWAY ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 06Z ...IT EXTENDS ALONG A PSN FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FL SW TO 25N88W TO 24N93W TO ACROSS THE SW GULF AND INLAND MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S OF THE FRONT FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N95W NW TO 22N97W. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ESE IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BUOYS IN THE NW GULF SHOW THAT THE STRONG NE WINDS THERE FROM YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT HERE HAVE DIMINISHED TO MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED S TO THE WRN PORTION OF ZONE GMZ017...AND A SMALL AREA OF NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO S OF 21N W OF 95W. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED THAT SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING IN THE NW GULF WITH THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT...WITH LOWER SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE NW GULF ZONE GMZ011. SEAS IN THE FAR SW GULF IN THE AREA OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE PER THE SAME PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE NOTED...WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT TO THE SE OF A LINE FROM ABOUT SARASOTA FL TO 24N89W TO 19N94W. A SMALL POCKET OF 5-6 FT SEAS IS IN THE SW GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM S OF 22N BETWEEN 94W AND THE FRONT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AS MENTIONED ABOVE ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING SLIGHTLY. THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM THE FAR SE GULF TO THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FAR ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE GULF THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MON. IT WILL PROVIDE THE FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS S OF 27N...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE GENERALLY E WINDS N OF 27N. ONCE THE SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SUBSIDE TONIGHT...SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FT S OF 27N TO 2-3 FT N OF 27N THROUGH MON. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRES IS REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SWD FROM ERN U.S. SEABOARD BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE OF E WINDS...TO THE FRESH RANGE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FL WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE ERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FL. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 3-5 FT ON THE NRN HALF OF THE ERN GULF WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N78W SW TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 16N81W...AND TO INLAND NRN NICARAGUA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK PRES PATTERN LEFT BEHIND OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC IN THE WAKE OF BROAD LOW PRES THAT HAS LIFTED N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE 1009 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. LATEST BUOY AND ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW RATHER LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN WITH 1-2 FT SEAS W OF 75W AND BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 63W...AND 3-4 FT SEAS BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. SEAS ARE HIGHER IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES DUE TO A NE TO E SWELL THERE. THOSE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ERN...WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE FLOW WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LINGERING LARGE TROUGH LEFT BEHIND AFTER THE BROAD LOW PRES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS STRETCHES FROM NEAR 31N71W SW TO 26N74W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS...AND SW TO INLAND CNTRL CUBA. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA...AND AS OF 06Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N76W SW TO INLAND STUART FL AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR FORT MYERS. THE 0214Z ASCAT PASS CLEARLY DEPICTED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS N OF ABOUT 28N AND E OF THE TROUGH TO 66W. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S IN DIRECTION E OF THE TROUGH. STRONG NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS REMAIN QUITE LARGE WITHIN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS WHERE THE RANGE IS 9-12 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 5-6 FT N OF 27N W OF 78W...AND ALSO S OF 26N BETWEEN 69W AND THE BAHAMAS. LOWER SEAS OF 4-5 FT ARE S OF A LINE FROM 25N69W TO 27N65W. EVEN LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE 9-12 FT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...AND TO 5-7 FT BY SUN EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N69W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS OF FL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND CNTRL CUBA EARLY TONIGHT AND STALL FROM NEAR 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A SHEAR LINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY N OF 29N THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR...AND TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY S OF 27N SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. MODELS ARE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NE FLOW INCREASES FURTHER TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT ENCOMPASSING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN DUE TO A SURGE OF STRONG HIGH PRES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THAT BUILDS SWD OVER THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANTLY TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...NE-E WINDS INCREASE TO STRONG CATEGORY WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 29N. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER...IN THE RANGE OF 6-7 FT N OF 29N TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE FAR SE PART. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.