000 AGXX40 KNHC 211623 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1223 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW GULF CURRENTLY. STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PERSIST. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OVER WARM WATERS. GIVEN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT...THE ADVECTION OF COOL AIR TEMPERATURES OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST SEA SURFACE ANALYSIS...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF TAMPICO...MEXICO STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SW PART OF ZONE GMZ023 ALONG VERACRUZ BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FRESH E FLOW IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN JAMAICA SW TO INLAND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH BROAD LOW PRES N OF THE BASIN OVER THE WRN ATLC IS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BROAD LOW PRES OFF NE NICARAGUA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY...BUT WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. ALMOST FLAT SEAS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH SEAS STILL A FOOT OR TWO HIGHER IN ATLC PASSAGES DUE TO LINGERING NORTHERLY SWELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS...WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE FLOW WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 13 FT CONTINUE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N73W. THE LOW IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W...BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEAS IN THIS AREA WILL BE 8 TO 12 FT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE. RESIDUAL SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL PERSIST INTO LATE SATURDAY THEN SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY...REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE SATURDAY...THEN STALL FROM 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUNDAY. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFF NE FLORIDA LATE TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY S OF 27N LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK AS A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.