000 AGXX40 KNHC 210728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE THE TX COAST ON THU EVENING...AND AS OF 06Z EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA SW TO INLAND FAR NE MX. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SEWD BEHIND THE FRONT AS NOTED IN THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE BUOYS AND RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW RELATIVELY GENTLE TO NE WINDS E AND SE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE NE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED TO N-NE AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT. THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...REACHING A PSN FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND EXIT THE SE GULF WATERS SAT EVENING. GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COOL AIR TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST SEA SURFACE ANALYSIS...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF TAMPICO...MEXICO STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SW PART OF ZONE GMZ023 ALONG VERACRUZ BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT EVENING. THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ESE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH ELY MODERATE FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER OF THE FRESH INTENSITY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT SUN THROUGH MUCH OF MON...THEN BUILD SOME TO 5-7 FT IN THE SE GULF PORTION TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN JAMAICA SW TO INLAND NRN NICARAGUA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH BROAD LOW PRES N OF THE BASIN OVER THE WRN ATLC IS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE BASIN WITH BOTH BUOY AND ASCAT DATA REVEALING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT... EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E-SE WINDS S OF 15N E OF 71W. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT W OF 72W... AND 3-5 FT E OF 72W IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL. BROAD LOW PRES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON SAT...PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST NW OF WRN...AND TO THE COAST OF ERN HONDURAS BY EARLY ON SUN...WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE FLOW WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD LOW PRES E-NE OF THE NW BAHAMAS HAS ACQUIRED A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION SINCE LAST NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES N. THE 0140Z ASCAT PASS FROM LAST SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER ROUGHLY BETWEEN 90 NM TO 270 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE...AND BETWEEN 60 NM TO 180 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE EXCEPT HIGHER WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. BUOY 41047 LOCATED AT 27.5N 71.5W HAS BEEN REPORTING COMBINED SEAS OF 11 FT SINCE 01Z LAST NIGHT...AND SEAS OF 10-12 FT SINCE 0530Z WITH S WINDS OF 25-30 KT. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS WELL TO THE E OF THE LOW FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE N THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER DURING TODAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL THEN MERGE WITH A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE THE U.S. E COAST. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS THE LOW DRAGS THE TRAILING TROUGH ALONG WITH IT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST DURING THIS MORNING....REACH FROM 31N77W TO VERO BEACH FL THIS EVENING... FROM 31N71W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY SAT...FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM NEAR 24N65W TO VICINITY WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO A REMNANT SHEAR LINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.