000 AGXX40 KNHC 201812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT. THE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE BASIN... EXTENDING FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COOL AIR TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF TAMPICO... MEXICO STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG VERACRUZ... MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING... THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT... MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BY SUNDAY MORNING... THEN WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE TRADES PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTED BY ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE REGION. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT NEAR ATLANTIC PASSAGES WHERE UP TO 7 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. BROAD LOW PRES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SATURDAY EVENING... THEN STALLING FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN JAMAICA... TO THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS BY EARLY SUNDAY... WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS IS SUPPORTING PULSES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER...BUT IS ALSO SHEARING THE CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND HAS BEEN PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE REGION N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED SEAS TO 14 FT IN THIS AREA...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LOCAL WINDS AND LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT... AND EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW DRAGS THE TRAILING TROUGH ALONG WITH IT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY...REACH FROM 31N71W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY SATURDAY... FROM BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLING FROM NEAR 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO A REMNANT SHEAR LINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.