000 AGXX40 KNHC 191758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 158 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NW GULF IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF TEXAS LATE THU... AND INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. BY EARLY FRI...THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N96W...THEN SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ CITY. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL...NW AND FAR W GULF WATERS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE PROSPECT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY OFF THE TAMAULIPAS COAST NORTH OF TAMPICO ON FRI THEN OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ FRI NIGHT. THE STILL-WARM WATER TEMPERATURES WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY PROBABILITIES FOR GALES AT THIS TIME...IN CONTRAST TO THE SREF WHICH SHOWS NEAR 50 PERCENT CHANCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MITIGATING THE CHANCES FOR GALES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW NEAR GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY AND A GALE WARNING MAY STILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ALSO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR SEAS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WW3 GUIDANCE OVER THE NW GULF THU INTO FRI WITH UP TO 9 FT EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT LEAVING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SW GULF...AND FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO SUNDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE TRADES PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTED BY ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE REGION. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE DECAYING NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES. THE BROAD LOW PRES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH SAT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN PASSING SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST NW OF JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS BY EARLY SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A SHARP TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 28N65W TO ELONGATED LOW PRES NEAR 23N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 14 UTC INDICATE A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 14 FT IN THIS AREA. A WELL STACKED UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORT THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI. SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS ARE MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA. WHILE THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOUR BELOW 8 FT...HIGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED N OF 27N THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AND LOW SHIFT NORTH. THE LOW WILL LIFT RAPIDLY N OF THE AREA STARTING SAT AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE NW THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES BUILD IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH FRESH BUILDING SEAS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.