000 AGXX40 KNHC 190734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 334 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF... AND MAINLY 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE E BY THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF FROM TEXAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON... PUSHING SE OF THE BASIN BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE U.S. GULF COAST STATES IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N FLOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS FRI-SAT WITH SREF 34-KT PROBABILITIES SHOWING GALES LIKELY. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRES CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE W CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH GENTLE WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. MODERATE NE-E FLOW IS FOUND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN... WITH MODERATE E-SE FLOW IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WHICH IS NOSING INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS IN THE AREA OF GENTLE WINDS...2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT IN THE E CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 6-8 FT NEAR AND THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO DECAYING LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS. THE BROAD LOW PRES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH SAT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN PASSING SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST NW OF JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS BY EARLY SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SLOW MOVING AND BROAD LOW PRES IS NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 24N68.5W AT 1004 MB. THIS LOW IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG SW-W SHEAR WHICH IS FORCING ALL DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE E WITH NEW ISOLATED ACTIVITY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO NEAR 27N63W...AS WELL AS SW OF THE LOW TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...GENERALLY WITHIN 360 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS WHERE THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E IS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TODAY...THEN MOVING NW THU BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE NE-E BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE NW THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES BUILD IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH FRESH BUILDING SEAS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.