000 AGXX40 KNHC 181742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE COAST OF TEXAS...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TODAY. THESE WINDS WERE ONGOING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE IS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN SLIGHTLY. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD STARTING WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NW GULF THU. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY FRI...AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF OFF TAMPICO TO 20N97W IN THE SW GULF BY EARLY SAT...BEFORE SWEEPING SE OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT.THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY GALES OR NEAR GALES AS THE BARRIER JET SETS UP ALONG THE OROGRAPHIC AREAS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG A BROAD AND PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE AREA REACHING FROM PANAMA TO GRAND CAYMAN. SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL...WITH ONLY 1 TO 3 FT NOTED IN BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE FRINGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY. MODERATE SE FLOW IS NOTED BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND THE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT...ALTHOUGH ARE LIKELY HAS HIGH AS 6 OR 7 FT IN PLUMES OF LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL PUNCHING THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES...ESPECIALLY THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. IT IS LIKELY MUCH OF THIS SWELL IS REACHING THE ABC ISLANDS AND COAST OF VENEZUELA. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW PRES IS NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N69W AT 1005 MB. THIS LOW HAS FORMED ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING REACHING NE OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OBSERVED FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WELL EAST OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERLY WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS TO 13 FT ARE LIKELY WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...IN A MIX OF LOCALLY DEVELOPED WIND WAVES AND ONGOING LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL. THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE THE NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL START TO SUBSIDE OUTSIDE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITHE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO PRECEDE ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT DIVERGE SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WAS AGAIN USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN TURNING TO THE NW THROUGH THU BEFORE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK THE LOW QUICKLY BACK TO THE E-NE THEREAFTER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW...MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION FRI NIGHT AND PUSHING SE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.