000 AGXX40 KNHC 180752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 352 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ALONG 21N/32N TO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 90W DRIFTING W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS E OF 90W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF 90W. WINDS ARE LOCALLY STRONG IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN THE SE GULF...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. A NW TO SE ORIENTED TROUGH WILL ALSO MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF THU...MOVING OFFSHORE THU NIGHT... REACHING THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF FRI...AND THE EASTERN GULF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE PUSHING SE OF THE BASIN LATE SAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY GALES OR NEAR GALES AS THE BARRIER JET SETS UP ALONG THE OROGRAPHIC AREAS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W...WHILE LOW PRES AND TROUGHING N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES DISRUPTS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 70W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E OF 70W INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT W OF 70W...3-5 FT E OF 70W...AND 5-8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC IN NORTHERLY SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM VERY DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE. WAVE PERIOD PLOTS INDICATE THAT ENERGY FROM NICOLE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PANAMA...COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW PRES IS NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22.5N70W AT 1005 MB. THIS LOW HAS FORMED ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING REACHING NE OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 26N67W TO 22N62W TO 18N65W TO 20N72W TO 26N67W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERLY WATERS...AND MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE 10-14 FT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WHICH IS 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN ANY WAVE GUIDANCE. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT ELSEWHERE IN NE SWELL ORIGINATING FROM VERY DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO PRECEDE ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT DIVERGE SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN TURNING TO THE NW THROUGH THU BEFORE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK THE LOW QUICKLY BACK TO THE E-NE THEREAFTER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW...MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION FRI NIGHT AND PUSHING SE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.