000 AGXX40 KNHC 171711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 111 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE GULF...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SE GULF...1-2 FT OVER THE SE GULF...AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF THU...MOVING OFFSHORE THU NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF FRI...AND THE EASTERN GULF LATE FRI NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY GALES OR NEAR GALES AS THE BARRIER JET SETS UP ALONG THE OROGRAPHIC AREAS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN NORTHERLY SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND 2-4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE NICOLE HAVE REACHED THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA WEST TO NORTHERN PANAMA. THE BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS...6-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SHEAR LINE WILL MEANDER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHILE RIDGING ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD BEHIND EXITING AND DISTANT HURRICANE NICOLE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OLD SHEAR LINE AND SHIFTING IT NE THROUGH WED AND THEN LIFTING NW THROUGH END OF WEEK. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KT TUE AND WED NW-N OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. FRESH SEAS WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE TO LARGE NE SWELL FROM NICOLE. SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE IN NNE SWELL AT 15 SECONDS HAVE REACHED THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND LESSER ANTILLES AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID- WEEK. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.