000 AGXX40 KNHC 170754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND INTO TEXAS. A DYING SHEAR LINE EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N85W...AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT IN THE SE GULF NEAR THE SHEAR LINE...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. THE WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR LINE IS SOMEWHAT DUE TO A LOSS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A NNW TO SSE ALIGNED TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 25N83W. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF THU...MOVING OFFSHORE THU NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF FRI...AND THE EASTERN GULF LATE FRI NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY GALES OR NEAR GALES ALONG TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC AREAS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80-81W WHILE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING N-NE OF THE BASIN IS DISRUPTED BY A SHEAR LINE ALONG 21N-23N. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE MAINLY 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE NICOLE HAVE BEGUN TO REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY...THESE SWELLS WILL MANAGE TO IMPRESSIVELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA WEST TO NORTHERN PANAMA. PEAK ENERGY FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH 8-9 FT AT AROUND 15 SECONDS BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THU. THE BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 21N55W TO 21.5N65W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E FLOW TO THE N OF THE SHEARLINE...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW TO THE S OF THE AXIS. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL AND MIXED WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS ARE 6-9 FT N OF THE SHEAR LINE...AND 5-7 FT S OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE SHEAR LINE WILL MEANDER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHILE RIDGING ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD BEHIND EXITING AND DISTANT HURRICANE NICOLE. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TO THE N OF THE WEAKENING SHEAR LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SHEAR LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OLD SHEAR LINE AND SHIFTING IT NE THROUGH WED AND THEN LIFTING NW THROUGH END OF WEEK. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KT TUE AND WED NW-N OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND/OR LINGERING TROUGHING. FRESH SEAS WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE TO LARGE NE SWELL FROM NICOLE. LOOK FOR 8-9 FT OF NNE SWELL AT 15 SECONDS TO REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.