000 AGXX40 KNHC 161846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND INTO TEXAS. A DYING SHEAR LINE EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N84W...AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THIS PARTLY DUE TO LOSS OF LLVL CONVERGENCE AS A NNW TO SSE ALIGNED LLVL TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN GULF FROM OFFSHORE OF THE PANHANDLE TO SE GULF...WITH CONVERGENCE ON E SIDE LEADING TO SCT CONVECTION AND SEAS 4-6 FT. THIS FEATURE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN UNDERNEATH RIDGE. MEANWHILE A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS JUST OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR LA PESCA. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE ELONGATED TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC...AND A BROAD MONSOONAL LOW LINGERS ACROSS SW-W CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NW GULF LATE IN THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES OR NEAR GALES ALONG TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC AREAS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80-81W WHILE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING N-NE OF THE BASIN IS DISRUPTED BY A SHEAR LINE ALONG 21N-23N. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN E OF THE W CARIB TROFFING...EXCEPT FRESH NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE WARNING NICOLE HAVE REACHED THE NE CARIB PASSAGES AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING AND BUILT TO 4-5 FT PER BUOY OBS. PEAK ENERGY FROM THIS EVENT EXPECTED MON THROUGH LATE TUE 8-9 FT AT 15 SECS BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THU. THE BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR S OF THE SHEARLINE NEAR 24N69W TUE THEN SHIFT NE AND THEN NW THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 21.5N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W THEN THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E FLOW TO THE N OF THE SHEARLINE...GENERALLY W OF 70W...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW TO THE S OF THE AXIS. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL AND MIXED WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS ARE 6-9 FT N OF THE SHEAR LINE...AND 5-7 FT S OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE SHEAR LINE WILL MEANDER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHILE THE E COAST RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD BEHIND EXITING AND DISTANT HURRICANE NICOLE. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TO THE N OF THE WEAKENING SHEAR LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL DROP INTO THE N PORTIONS OF THE AREA ENHANCING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SHEAR LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OLD SHEAR LINE AND SHIFTING IT NE THROUGH WED AND THEN LIFTING NW THROUGH END OF WEEK. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS STRONG WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KT BY WED N OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND/OR LINGERING TROUGHING. FRESH SEAS WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE TO LARGE NE SWELL FROM NICOLE. LOOK FOR 8-9 FT OF NNE SWELL AT 15 SECS TO REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND LESSER ANTILLES MON- LATE TUE. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.