000 AGXX40 KNHC 160737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 337 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS SSW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N90W...BUT IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED. MEANWHILE A BROAD AND WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 20N94W AND A TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO 25N96W ARE IN THE SW AND WESTERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE ELONGATED TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC...AND AS A BROAD MONSOONAL LOW LINGERS ACROSS SW-W CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NW GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 82W WHILE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING N-NE OF THE BASIN IS DISRUPTED BY A SHEAR LINE ALONG 22N-24N. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT NEAR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM WELL DISTANT HURRICANE NICOLE WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ATLC TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN...MOVING THROUGH THE PASSAGES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE BROAD AND WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR S OF THE SHEARLINE ALONG 24N AND N OF THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N81W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E FLOW TO THE N OF THE SHEARLINE...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW TO THE S OF THE AXIS. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL AND MIXED WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS ARE 6-9 FT N OF THE SHEAR LINE...AND 5-7 FT S OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE SHEAR LINE WILL MEANDER AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHILE THE E COAST RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD BEHIND EXITING AND DISTANT HURRICANE NICOLE. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TO THE N OF THE DYING SHEAR LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL DROP INTO THE N PORTIONS OF THE AREA ENHANCING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DYING SHEAR LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OLD SHEAR LINE AND SHIFTING IT E-NE THROUGH WED. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS STRONG WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KT BY WED N OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND/OR LINGERING TROUGHING. FRESH SEAS WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE TO LARGE NE SWELL FROM NICOLE. LOOK FOR 8-9 FT OF NNE SWELL TO REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND LESSER ANTILLES TUE-WED. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.